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Полезности, Перспектив, Решений.
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Utility (& Prospect & Decision Theories)  
Metadata
(refereed articles mainly)
See also Utility items

Contents   (in new windows)

1.   Utility Theory Metadata News
2.   Utility Theory Metadata. Events:
  January     2016   December   November  
        October   September   August   July   June   May   April   March   February  
            2016 Undated     2015 Undated         Archive     2014     2013     2012    
            2011     2010     2009     2008     2007
3.   Utility Theory Years Rankings     2015   2014
4.   Utility Problems     (St. Petersburg Paradox,   Allais Paradox  
        Equity Premium Puzzle,   Risk Aversion,   Gains and Losses   Loss Aversion,  
        Overweighting of low Probabilities   Underweighting of high Probabilities,  
        "Four-Fold-Pattern"   Shape of Probability Weighting Function,  
        Ellsberg Paradox,   Preference Reversals)
5.   New Approach.   Principle of Uncertain Future
6.   Solution of Problems
    (of St. Petersburg Paradox,   of Allais Paradox,  
        of Equity Premium Puzzle,   of Risk Aversion,   of Gains and Losses,  
        of Loss Aversion,   of Overweighting of low Probabilities,  
        of Underweighting of high Probabilities,   of "Four-Fold-Pattern"  
        of Shape of Probability Weighting Function,   of Ellsberg Paradox,  
        of Preference Reversals)


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Utility & Prospect & Decision Theories   Metadata  
1. News
Quarter News (2016 quarter 2)

Top institutions in the field of Utility Models & Prospect Theory:

      1. (1,40)   Department of Ec-cs, Harvard University    

      2. (3,90)   Department of Ec-cs, University of California-San Diego    

      3. (4,10)   Department of Ec-cs, Boston University


Top authors in the field of Utility Models & Prospect Theory:

      1. (2,22)   Robert J. Barro    

      2. (3,93)   Larry G. Epstein    

      3. (4,07)   Peter P. Wakker


Risk Appetite
Edina Berlinger and Kata Varadi
in Public Finance Quarterly     2015
Abstract

Asymmetric reaction is rational behavior
Philip A. Horvath and Amit K. Sinha
in Journal of Economics and Finance     2017
Abstract

UNDERSTANDING HOW PEOPLE DECIDE: DECISION-MAKING THEORIES AS MENTAL REPRESENTATIONS
Alexandra Gheondea-Eladi
in Journal of Community Positive Practices     2015
Abstract

Canonical utility functions and continuous preference extensions
Igor Kopylov
in Journal of Mathematical Economics     2016
Abstract

Application of fuzzy sets in decision analysis for prioritising critical energy infrastructures
Polinpapilinho F. Katina and Resit Unal
in International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management     2015
Abstract

Utility representation of an incomplete and nontransitive preference relation
Hiroki Nishimura and Efe A. Ok
in Journal of Economic Theory     2016
Abstract

LIMITS OF NEOCLASSICAL UTILITY THEORY AND SOME POSSIBLE WAYS HOW TO OVERCOME THEM
Radim Valencik and Petr Wawrosz
in Economy & Business Journal     2016
Abstract

The transformations of utility theory: a behavioral perspective
Ulrich Witt
in Journal of Bioeconomics     2016
Abstract

Equal Tails: A Simple Method to Elicit Utility Under Violations of Expected Utility
Manel Baucells and Antonio Villasis
in Decision Analysis     2015
Abstract

On the Origin of Utility, Weighting, and Discounting Functions: How They Get Their Shapes and How to Change Their Shapes
Neil Stewart, Stian Reimers and Adam J. L. Harris
in Management Science     2015
Abstract

Decision Making Under Uncertainty When Preference Information Is Incomplete
Benjamin Armbruster and Erick Delage
in Management Science     2015
Abstract

Ambiguity Attitudes in a Large Representative Sample
Stephen G. Dimmock, Roy Kouwenberg and Peter P. Wakker
in Management Science     2016
Abstract

The Rich Domain of Risk
Olivier Armantier and Nicolas Treich
in Management Science     2016
Abstract

Top
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Utility Theory Years Rankings
Year 2015

Top 2015 institutions in the field of Utility Models & Prospect Theory
(#, (rank), name):

      1. (1,43)   Department of Economics, Harvard University

      2. (4,09)   Department of Economics, Boston University

      3. (4,23)   Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen,
Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam


      4. (4,29)   Department of Ec-cs, University of California-San Diego

      5. (6,17)   Paris School of Economics

      6. (7,14)   Department of Economics, Oxford University

      7. (7,88)   Department of Economics, New York University

      8. (7,97)   National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

      9. (12,18)   London School of Economics (LSE)

      10. (12,45)   School of Economics, University of Nottingham


Top 2015 authors in the field of Utility Models & Prospect Theory
(#, (rank), name):

      1. (2,30)   Peter P. Wakker    

      2. (3,36)   Larry G. Epstein    

      3. (4,25)   Harry M. Markowitz

      4. (6,23)   Edi Karni    

      5. (8,34)   Glenn W. Harrison    

      6. (11,12)   Andrei Shleifer    

      7. (13,46)   Robert Sugden    

      8. (14,06)   Tim Bollerslev    

      9. (14,16)   Charles F. Manski    

      10. (14,25)   David Easley    


Top
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Utility & Prospect & Decision Theories   Metadata
2. Events
Top
Metadata added/revised in January

The Welfare Cost of Inflation Risk Under Imperfect Insurance
Yann Algan, Olivier Allais, Edouard Challe and Xavier Ragot
from Sciences Po     2016
Abstract

Risk Appetite
Edina Berlinger and Kata Varadi
in Public Finance Quarterly     2015
Abstract

The effects of age pension on retirement drawdown choices
Osei K. Wiafe, Anup K. Basu and John Chen
in Finance Research Letters     2017
Abstract

Precautionary saving: A taxonomy of prudence
Marcos Vergara
in Economics Letters     2017
Abstract

Variance-component-based nested logit specifications: Improved formulation, and practical microsimulation of random disturbance terms
David S. Bunch and David M. Rocke
in Journal of choice modelling     2016
Abstract

Kuhn’s Theorem for extensive form Ellsberg games
Igor Muraviev, Frank Riedel and Linda Sass
in Journal of Mathematical Economics     2017
Abstract

Asymmetric reaction is rational behavior
Philip A. Horvath and Amit K. Sinha
in Journal of Economics and Finance     2017
Abstract

UNDERSTANDING HOW PEOPLE DECIDE: DECISION-MAKING THEORIES AS MENTAL REPRESENTATIONS
Alexandra Gheondea-Eladi
in Journal of Community Positive Practices     2015
Abstract

Top
2016
Metadata added/revised in December

Welfare, preferences and the reconstruction of desires
Manfred Joseph Holler
in International Journal of Social Economics     2015
Abstract

More Precise Decision-Making Methodology in the Temporalized Body of Evidence. Application in the Information Technology Management
Gia Sirbiladze, Irina Khutsishvili, Otar Badagadze and Mikheil Kapanadze
in International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM)     2016
Abstract

Canonical utility functions and continuous preference extensions
Igor Kopylov
in Journal of Mathematical Economics     2016
Abstract

Location and Innovation Optimism: a Behavioral-Experimental Approach
A. Alventosa, Y. Gomez, V. Martinez-Moles and J. Vila
in Journal of the Knowledge Economy     2016
Abstract

Some considerations on how often safety critical valves should be tested
Alireza M. Gelyani, Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen, Frank Asche and Seth Guikema
in International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management     2015
Abstract

Application of fuzzy sets in decision analysis for prioritising critical energy infrastructures
Polinpapilinho F. Katina and Resit Unal
in International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management     2015
Abstract

Top
Metadata added/revised in November

Utility representation of an incomplete and nontransitive preference relation
Hiroki Nishimura and Efe A. Ok
in Journal of Economic Theory     2016
Abstract

Satisficing and stochastic choice
Victor H. Aguiar, Maria Jose Boccardi Chalela and Mark Dean
in Journal of Economic Theory     2016
Abstract

Consumption optimization for recursive utility in a jump-diffusion model
Fabio Antonelli and Carlo Mancini
in Decisions in Economics and Finance     2016
Abstract

Revenue sharing in network utility maximization problems
Isabel Amigo, Pablo Belzarena and Sandrine Vaton
in Netnomics     2016
Abstract

An expected utility theory for state-dependent preferences
Edi Karni and David Schmeidler
in Theory and Decision     2016
Abstract

LIMITS OF NEOCLASSICAL UTILITY THEORY AND SOME POSSIBLE WAYS HOW TO OVERCOME THEM
Radim Valencik and Petr Wawrosz
in Economy & Business Journal     2016
Abstract

Top
Metadata added/revised in October

The transformations of utility theory: a behavioral perspective
Ulrich Witt
in Journal of Bioeconomics     2016
Abstract

Equal Tails: A Simple Method to Elicit Utility Under Violations of Expected Utility
Manel Baucells and Antonio Villasis
in Decision Analysis     2015
Abstract

On the Origin of Utility, Weighting, and Discounting Functions: How They Get Their Shapes and How to Change Their Shapes
Neil Stewart, Stian Reimers and Adam J. L. Harris
in Management Science     2015
Abstract

Decision Making Under Uncertainty When Preference Information Is Incomplete
Benjamin Armbruster and Erick Delage
in Management Science     2015
Abstract

Ambiguity Attitudes in a Large Representative Sample
Stephen G. Dimmock, Roy Kouwenberg and Peter P. Wakker
in Management Science     2016
Abstract

The Rich Domain of Risk
Olivier Armantier and Nicolas Treich
in Management Science     2016
Abstract

Do Individuals Have Preferences Used in Macro-Finance Models? An Experimental Investigation
Alexander Brown and Hwagyun Kim
in Management Science     2014
Abstract

Eliciting Prospect Theory When Consequences Are Measured in Time Units: “Time Is Not Money”
Mohammed Abdellaoui and Emmanuel Kemel
in Management Science     2014
Abstract

The Irresistible Fetish of Utility Theory: From “Pleasure and Pain” to Rationalising Torture
Giovanni Dosi and Andrea Roventini
in Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy     2016
Abstract

A generalized probability framework to model economic agents' decisions under uncertainty
Emmanuel Haven and Sandro Sozzo
in International Review of Financial Analysis     2016
Abstract

Risky Curves: On the empirical failure of expected utility theory, Daniel Friedman, R. Mark Isaac, Duncan James and Shyam Sunder. Routledge, 2014, xiii + 137 pages
Catherine Eckel
in Economics and Philosophy     2016
Abstract

UTILITY MAXIMIZATION UNDER MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN DISCRETE TIME
Marcel Nutz
in Mathematical Finance     2016
Abstract

Top
Metadata added/revised in September

Conjoint Analysis for Social Media Marketing Experimentation: Choice, Utility Estimates and Preference Ranking
Gordon R. Foxall, R. G. Vishnu Menon and Valdimar Sigurdsson
in Managerial and Decision Economics     2016
Abstract

Nash was a first to axiomatize expected utility
Han Bleichrodt, Chen Li, Ivan Moscati and Peter P. Wakker
in Theory and Decision     2016
Abstract

A monotone model of intertemporal choice
Pavlo R. Blavatskyy
in Economic Theory     2016
Abstract

Entropy-optimal weight constraint elicitation with additive multi-attribute utility models
Gert van Valkenhoef and Tommi Tervonen
in Omega     2016
Abstract

A theory of robust experiments for choice under uncertainty
S. Grant, J. Kline, I. Meneghel, John Quiggin and R. Tourky
in Journal of Economic Theory     2016
Abstract

Weighted Almost Stochastic Dominance: Revealing the Preferences of Most Decision Makers in the St. Petersburg Paradox
Chin Hon Tan
in Decision Analysis     2015
Abstract

Lexicographic expected utility without completeness
Dino Borie
in Theory and Decision     2016
Abstract

Top
Metadata added/revised in August

Multi-Attribute Decision Making in a Bidding Game with Imperfect Information and Uncertainty
Ziho Kang and Thomas Morin
in International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM)     2016
Abstract

PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION UNDER NONLINEAR UTILITY
Gregor Heyne, Michael Kupper and Ludovic Tangpi
in International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF)     2016
Abstract

Continuously differentiable preferences
Adolfo Garcia de la Sienra
in Contaduria y Administracion     2016
Abstract

Формализация теории «Функционального» субъективного потребительского поведения
Селиверстов Ярослав Александрович
in Вестник Томского государственного университета. Экономика     2016
Abstract

Metadata added/revised in July

On the Rejectability of the Subjective Expected Utility Theory
Grabiszewski Konrad
in The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics     2016
Abstract

An elicitation of utility for quality of life under prospect theory
Arthur Attema, Werner Brouwer, l’Haridon, Olivier and Jose Luis Pinto
in Journal of Health Economics     2016
Abstract

An expected utility analysis of k-majority rules
Keith L. Dougherty and Robi Ragan
in Constitutional Political Economy     2016
Abstract

Difference-in-Differences Method in Comparative Effectiveness Research: Utility with Unbalanced Groups
Huanxue Zhou, Christopher Taber, Steve Arcona and Yunfeng Li
in Applied Health Economics and Health Policy     2016
Abstract

Metadata added/revised in June

Stochastic Choice and Revealed Perturbed Utility
Drew Fudenberg, Ryota Iijima and Tomasz Strzalecki
in Econometrica     2015
Abstract

Representation of Epstein-Marinacci derivatives of absolutely continuous TU games
Francesca Centrone
in Economics Bulletin     2016
Abstract

Theories of Welfare Economics: A Short Synthesis
Baltatescu Ionela and George Dumitrescu
in Revista de Economie Mondiala / The Journal of Global Economics     2015
Abstract

Measuring Discounting without Measuring Utility
Arthur Attema, Han Bleichrodt, Yu Gao, Zhenxing Huang and Peter P. Wakker
in American Economic Review     2016
Abstract

Preference Cloud Theory: Imprecise Preferences and Preference Reversals
Oben Bayrak and John Hey
from University Library of Munich, Germany     2016
Abstract

Top
Metadata added/revised in May

Ambiguity in risk preferences in robust stochastic optimization
William B. Haskell, Lunce Fu and Maged Dessouky
in European Journal of Operational Research     2016
Abstract

A representation theorem for guilt aversion
Martin Kaae Jensen and Maria Kozlovskaya
in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization     2016
Abstract

A test for risk-averse expected utility
Christopher P. Chambers, Ce Liu and Seung-Keun Martinez
in Journal of Economic Theory     2016
Abstract

A note on fourth-order risk aversion
Yoshitaka Sakagami
in Decisions in Economics and Finance     2016
Abstract

Facelifting in utility maximization
Kasper Larsen, Halil Mete Soner and Gordan Zitkovic
in Finance and Stochastics     2016
Abstract

Developments in non-expected utility theories: an empirical study of risk aversion
Dorsaf Ben Aissia
in Journal of Economics and Finance     2016
Abstract

On the precautionary motive for savings and prudence in the rank-dependent utility framework
Alain Chateauneuf, Ghizlane Lakhnati and Eric Langlais
in Economic Theory     2016
Abstract

Optimal investment and consumption under partial information
Kristoffer Lindensjo
in Mathematical Methods of Operations Research     2016
Abstract

The Anscombe–Aumann representation and the independence axiom: a reconsideration
Abhinash Borah and Christopher Kops
in Theory and Decision     2016
Abstract

A minimal extension of Bayesian decision theory
Ken Binmore
in Theory and Decision     2016
Abstract

Richter–Peleg multi-utility representations of preorders
Jose Carlos R. Alcantud, Gianni Bosi and Magali Zuanon
in Theory and Decision     2016
Abstract

The impact of ambiguity and prudence on prevention decisions
Loic Berger
in Theory and Decision     2016
Abstract

Maxmin weighted expected utility: a simpler characterization
Joseph Y. Halpern and Samantha Leung
in Theory and Decision     2016
Abstract

A characterization of the generalized optimal choice set through the optimization of generalized weak utilities
Athanasios Andrikopoulos
in Theory and Decision     2016
Abstract

Retrospectives: How Economists Came to Accept Expected Utility Theory: The Case of Samuelson and Savage
Ivan Moscati
in Journal of Economic Perspectives     2016
Abstract

Динамическое хеджирование с учетом степени неприятия риска
Лакшина Валерия Владимировна
in Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики Higher School of Economics Economic Journal     2016
Abstract

Top
Metadata added/revised in April

Visible Disabilities: Acknowledging the Utility of Acknowledgment
Kayla Saal, Larry R. Martinez and Nicholas A. Smith
in Industrial and Organizational Psychology     2016
Abstract

Loss Aversion and Ruinous Optimal Wagering in the Markowitz Model of Non-Expected Utility
David Peel and David Law
in Economics Bulletin     2016
Abstract

Conditional preference orders and their numerical representations
Samuel Drapeau and Asgar Jamneshan
in Journal of Mathematical Economics     2016
Abstract

Expected utility theory and inner and outer measures of loss aversion
G. Charles-Cadogan
in Journal of Mathematical Economics     2016
Abstract

Harsanyi’s theorem without the sure-thing principle: On the consistent aggregation of Monotonic Bernoullian and Archimedean preferences
Stephane Zuber
in Journal of Mathematical Economics     2016
Abstract

Risk aversion with two risks: A theoretical extension
Jingyuan Li, Dongri Liu and Jianli Wang
in Journal of Mathematical Economics     2016
Abstract

Top
Metadata added/revised in March

On the dual problem of utility maximization in incomplete markets
Lingqi Gu, Yiqing Lin and Junjian Yang
in Stochastic Processes and their Applications     2016
Abstract

UTILITY MAXIMIZATION WITH RANDOM HORIZON: A BSDE APPROACH
Monique Jeanblanc, Thibaut Mastrolia, Dylan Possamai and Anthony Reveillac
in International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF)     2016
Abstract

Recursive utility, increasing impatience and capital deepening: F.A. Hayek's 'utility analysis and interest'
Arash Molavi Vassei
in The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought     2015
Abstract

Using vNM expected utility theory to facilitate the decision-making in social ethics
Yanick Farmer
in Journal of Risk Research     2015
Abstract

Loss Modification Incentives for Insurers Under Expected Utility and Loss Aversion
Adriaan Soetevent and Liting Zhou
in De Economist     2016
Abstract

A new rank dependent utility approach to model risk averse preferences in portfolio optimization
Leili Javanmardi and Yuri Lawryshyn
in Annals of Operations Research     2016
Abstract

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Metadata added/revised in February

Diminishing Utility Decision Model for Weighting Criteria
Jih-Jeng Huang and Masahiro Inuiguchi
in International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM)     2015
Abstract

Double rank dependent expected utility (DRDEU) model in individual judgments
Yenalyev Maxim Mihailovich
in European journal of economics and management sciences     2015
Abstract

Double Helix Value Functions, Ordinal/Cardinal Approach, Additive Utility Functions, Multiple Criteria, Decision Paradigm, Process, and Types (Z Theory I)
Behnam Malakooti
in International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM)     2015
Abstract

Allais, Ellsberg, and preferences for hedging
Mark Dean and Pietro Ortoleva
in Theoretical Economics     2016
Abstract

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Metadata added/revised in 2016 Undated

On continuous multi-utility representations of semi-closed and closed preorders
Gianni Bosi and Gerhard Herden
in Mathematical Social Sciences     2016
Abstract

Where Utility Functions Do Not Exist - A Note on Lexicographic Orders
Jayanth Varma
from Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department    
Abstract

The Existence and Continuity of Utility Functions: A New Proof
Jayanth Varma
from Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department     2015
Abstract

Coalitional Fairness and Distortion of Utilities
Somdeb Lahiri
from Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department     2015
Abstract

Utility Theory and Participation in Unfair Lotteries
Patel Nitin R and Subrahmanyam M G
from Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department     2015
Abstract

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Metadata added/revised in 2015 Undated

Equilibrium theory under ambiguity
Wei He and Nicholas C. Yannelis
in Journal of Mathematical Economics     2015
Abstract

The probability premium: A graphical representation
Louis R. Eeckhoudt and Roger Laeven
in Economics Letters     2015
Abstract

Mean-variance utility
Yutaka Nakamura
in Journal of Economic Theory     2015
Abstract

The effect of choice set misspecification on welfare measures in random utility models
Lianhua Li, Wiktor Adamowicz and Joffre Swait
in Resource and Energy Economics     2015
Abstract

Sample size and utility-difference precision in discrete-choice experiments: A meta-simulation approach
Jui-Chen Yang, F. Reed Johnson, Vikram Kilambi and Ateesha F. Mohamed
in Journal of choice modelling     2015
Abstract

Is There One Unifying Concept of Utility?An Experimental Comparison of Utility Under Risk and Utility Over Time
Mohammed Abdellaoui, Han Bleichrodt, Olivier L'Haridon and Corina Paraschiv
from HAL     2013
Abstract

Certain and Uncertain Utility and Insurance Demand: Results From a Framed Field Experiment in Burkina Faso
Elena Serfilippi, Michael Carter and Catherine Guirkinger
from International Association of Agricultural Economists     2015
Abstract

Stability of probability effects in utility elicitation
Birgit Lohndorf, Anna-Lena Sachs and Rudolf Vetschera
in Central European Journal of Operations Research     2014
Abstract

A belief-based definition of ambiguity aversion
Xiangyu Qu
in Theory and Decision     2015
Abstract

Piecewise additivity for non-expected utility
Craig Webb
in Economic Theory     2015
Abstract

A theoretical foundation for the undercut-proof equilibrium
Martin C. Byford
in Journal of Economic Theory     2015
Abstract

Hurwicz expected utility and subjective sources
Ejaz Gul and Wolfgang Pesendorfer
in Journal of Economic Theory     2015
Abstract

The utility premium of Friedman and Savage, comparative risk aversion, and comparative prudence
James Huang and Richard Stapleton
in Economics Letters     2015
Abstract

Estimating conditional certainty equivalents using choice-experiment data
Juan Marcos Gonzalez, A. Brett Hauber and F. Reed Johnson
in Journal of choice modelling     2015
Abstract

Risk-Taking-Neutral Background Risk
Gunter Franke, Harris Schlesinger and Richard C. Stapleton
from CESifo Group Munich     2013
Abstract

A New Approach to Utility Function
Catalin Angelo Ioan
in Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica     2015
Abstract

Risk pricing in a non-expected utility framework
Gebhard Geiger
in European Journal of Operational Research     2015
Abstract

A Trojan Horse for Sociology? Preferences versus Evolution and Morality
Geoffrey M. Hodgson
in Review of Behavioral Economics     2015
Abstract

On continuous utility
Wilhellm Neuefeind
from Universite catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE)     2015
Abstract

Continuity of the expected utility
Freddy Delbaen
from Universite catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE)     2015
Abstract

Axiomatic theories of choice, cardinal utility and subjective probability: A review
Jacques H. Dreze
from Universite catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE)     2015
Abstract

H. H. Gossen – Half-Forgotten Personalities of Economic Though
Pavel Sirucek
in Acta Oeconomica Pragensia     2015
Abstract

Beyond Utility: Providing a Moral Foundation for Capitalism
Jared Meyer
in Journal of Private Enterprise     2015
Abstract

Ambiguity and Nonexpected Utility
Edi Kami, Fabio Maccheroni and Massimo Marinacci
Chapter 17 in Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications     2015
Abstract

On preference imprecision
Robin Cubitt, Daniel Navarro-Martinez and Chris Starmer
in Journal of Risk and Uncertainty     2015
Abstract

Time and No Lotteries: An Axiomatization of Maxmin Expected Utility
Asen Kochov
in Econometrica     2015
Abstract

Cautious Expected Utility and the Certainty Effect
Simone Cerreia?Vioglio, David Dillenberger and Pietro Ortoleva
in Econometrica     2015
Abstract

A discontinuous mispricing model under asymmetric information
Winston S. Buckley and Hongwei Long
in European Journal of Operational Research     2015
Abstract

Entropy Man
John Bryant
in Books from Economic Consultancy, Vocat International     2015
Abstract

Choice theory when agents can randomize
Jorg Stoye
in Journal of Economic Theory     2015
Abstract

Bayesian estimation of random utility models
Peter Lenk
Chapter 20 in Handbook of Choice Modelling     2014
Abstract

Do Respondents Adjust Their Expected Utility in the Presence of an Outcome Certainty Attribute in a Choice Experiment?
John Rolfe and Jill Windle
in Environmental & Resource Economics     2015
Abstract

To bet or not to bet? Decision-making under risk in non-human primates
Pele M., Broihanne M., Thierry B., Call J. and Dufour V.
in Journal of Risk and Uncertainty     2014
Abstract

Testing for independence while allowing for probabilistic choice
Graham Loomes and Ganna Pogrebna
in Journal of Risk and Uncertainty     2014
Abstract

General dual measures of riskiness
Klaas Schulze
in Theory and Decision     2015
Abstract

The effects of uncertainty on the WTA–WTP gap
Robert Reilly and Douglas Davis
in Theory and Decision     2015
Abstract

Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making:In 2 Parts
Edited by Leonard C MacLean and William T Ziemba
in World Scientific Books from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.     2013
Abstract

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Year 2014

Top 2014 institutions in the field of Utility Models & Prospect Theory
(#, (rank), name):

      1. (1,46)   Department of Economics, Harvard University    

      2. (3,29)   Department of Economics, Boston University    

      3. (3,40)   Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen,
Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam


      4. (3,57)   Department of Economics, Oxford University    

      5. (4,93)   Department of Economics, University of California-San Diego

      6. (5,48)   Paris School of Economics    

      7. (5,73)   National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)    

      8. (12,20)   Toulouse School of Economics (TSE)    

      9. (14,52)   London School of Economics (LSE)    

      10. (14,65)   Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA)    


Top 2014 authors in the field of Utility Models & Prospect Theory
(#, (rank), name):

      1. (1,56)   Peter P. Wakker    

      2. (2,88)   Larry G. Epstein    

      3. (5,48)   Harry M. Markowitz

      4. (7,50)   Andrei Shleifer    

      5. (8,32)   Peter E. Rossi    

      6. (9,43)   Edi Karni    

      7. (9,68)   Robert Sugden    

      8. (10,25)   Charles F. Manski    

      9. (11,24)   Glenn W. Harrison    

      10. (11,80)   Colin Camerer    



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3. Utility Problems & Paradoxes (more)
The Allais paradox (modified)

Suppose Mr. Somebody offers you a choice of only one of the following:
A guaranteed gain of $99.
Or
A lottery:
The gain of $100 with the probability P(preliminary) = 99%
or
$0 with the (preliminary) probability 1%.

The mathematical expectations of guarantee and lottery outcomes are exactly the same. But people chose the guaranteed gain instead of the lottery.


Top
Gains and Losses

Compare two experiments:

1) Mr. Somebody offers you a choice of only one of the following:
A guaranteed gain of $99.
Or
A lottery:
The gain of $100 with the probability P(preliminary) = 99%
or
$0 with the (preliminary) probability 1%.


2) Mr. Somebody offers you a choice of only one of the following:
A guaranteed loss of $99.
Or
A lottery:
The loss of $100 with the probability P(preliminary) = 99%
or
$0 with the (preliminary) probability 1%.


The mathematical expectations of the guarantee and lottery outcomes are exactly the same in both experiments. But in similar experiments, the overwhelming majority of people chose:
- in the case of gains - the guaranteed gain instead of the lottery one.
- in the case of losses - the lottery loss instead of the guaranteed one.
The possible well-known "natural and clear explanation" of gains in the Allais paradox by means of risk aversion cannot supply any uniform explanation for both gains and losses. The result of this explanation is gains' risk aversion and losses' risk seeking.


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Overweighting of low Probabilities

Suppose Mr. Somebody offers you a choice of only one of the following:
A guaranteed gain of $1.
Or
A lottery:
The gain of $100 with the probability P(preliminary) = 1%
or
$0 with the (preliminary) probability 1%.

The mathematical expectations of guarantee and lottery outcomes are exactly the same. But the well-determined experimental fact is: in similar experiments the obvious majority of people chose the lottery instead of the guaranteed gain.


Four-Fold-Pattern

The well-determined facts are:
For positive (gains) risky prospects, people typically
        1) overweight low probabilities but
        2) underweight high probabilities.
For negative (losses) risky prospects, people typically
        3) underweight low probabilities but
        4) overweight high probabilities.
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4. New Approach (more)    
The idea of the approach

Particular consideration of (hidden) uncertainties
(noises, fluctuations, measurements' errors, imprecision, etc.)

Principle of Uncertain Future
(simplified as much as possible)
The principle

The probability of a future event contains uncertainty.

4.1. The first consequence of the principle

Suppose we plan to test the probability value, which is equal to 99%.
Suppose the probability uncertainty value is equal to 5%.
Then, evidently, the real mean value of probability cannot be as high as 99%.
Generally,
High probabilities will decrease.
Phigh real < Phigh planned
Analogously, but considering the second consequence of the principle (see below),
Low probabilities can increase.
Plow real possible > Plow planned

4.2. The second consequence of the principle

The total probability of unforeseen future events
is more than 0%

Σ Punforeseen real > 0%
Hence,
The present total probability of future events
is less than 100%

Σ Pplanned < 100%
or
The present probability system of future events
is incomplete.


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5. Solution of Problems (more)    

The strongest qualitative test is the 4-Fold-Pattern.

Solution & Explanation
of the 4-Fold-Pattern
(simplified as much as possible)

The well-determined facts are:
For positive (gains) risky prospects, people typically
        1) overweight low probabilities but
        2) underweight high probabilities.
For negative (losses) risky prospects, people typically
        3) underweight low probabilities but
        4) overweight high probabilities.

Denoting the real value of probability,
which value is near 100% as Phigh real ,
the (positive) value of gain as G
and the (negative) value of loss as -G ,
we obtain
Phigh real < Phigh planned

and
G * Phigh real < G * Phigh planned

-G * Phigh real > -G * Phigh planned

        2) the underweight of high probabilities gains and
        4) the overweight of high probabilities losses.
Denoting the real value of probability,
which value is near 0% as Plow real possible
we obtain
Plow real possible > Plow planned

and
G * Plow real possible > G * Plow planned

-G * Plow real possible < -G * Plow planned

        1) the overweight of low probabilities gains and
        3) the underweight of low probabilities losses.
Thus, the above facts can be explained naturally and uniformly.


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Copyright ® Alexander Harin