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Correcting Formula of Forecasting
Modeling Forecasting Planning (Forecasting, MFP) (working papers mainly) See also Forecasting, MFP metadata
Contents
(in new windows)
1. News 2. Reviews & Analyses 3. Items' Events ( 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 ) 4. Problems 5. New Principle of Modeling, Forecasting, Planning - Principle of Uncertain Future 6. New Results. Solution of Problems 6.1. Solution of Problems 6.2. Correcting Formula of Forecasting
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F ≅ Fbase {1+Σφaddit}
{∏(1+kmultiplicat)} {1±Δerror}
more
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1. Forecasting News
(more)
Quarter News (2015 quarter 2)
Top institutions in the field of Forecasting: 1. (1,87) European Central Bank 2. (2,62) Department of Economics, Harvard University 3. (3,21) Economics Department, University of Wisconsin-Madison Top authors in the field of Forecasting: 1. (3,08) Kenneth S Rogoff 2. (4,86) Kenneth D. West 3. (4,92) Philip Hans Franses New works: Exploiting the Errors: A Simple Approach for Improved Volatility Forecasting Tim Bollerslev, Andrew J. Patton and Rogier Quaedvlieg from School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus Abstract Text Oil Price Forecastability and Economic Uncertainty Stelios Bekiros, Rangan Gupta and Alessia Paccagnini from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics Abstract Text The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model with Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling Joshua Chan from Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University Abstract Text Forecasting the yield curve: art or science? Tomas K. Molenaars, Nick H. Reinerink and Marcus Hemminga from University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text
Year News (2014)
Top 2014 institutions in the field of Forecasting (#, (rank), name): 1. (2,06) European Central Bank 2. (2,13) Economics Department, University of Wisconsin-Madison 3. (3,32) Department of Economics, Harvard University 4. (4,68) International Monetary Fund (IMF) 5. (5,32) Department of Economics, Oxford University 6. (6,06) Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen, Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam 7. (8,94) Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania 8. (9,78) Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) 9. (10,43) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 10. (12,17) Business School, University of Technology Sydney Top 2014 authors in the field of Forecasting (#, (rank), name): 1. (4,21) Kenneth S Rogoff 2. (4,28) Bruce E. Hansen 3. (4,839) Philip Hans Franses 4. (4,840) Kenneth D. West 5. (5,05) John Geweke 6. (7,39) David F. Hendry 7. (7,95) Todd Clark 8. (9,47) Allan Timmermann 9. (10,54) Hal Ronald Varian 10. (10,65) Lucrezia Reichlin Top
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2. Modeling Forecasting Planning
Reviews & Analyses The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasts Alastair R. Hall Journal of Time Series Analysis 2012 Abstract The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting Michael Peter Clements and David F. Hendry OUP Catalogue from Oxford University Press 2011 Abstract Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners J. Scott Armstrong Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Content Handbook of Economic Forecasting G. Elliott, C. Granger and A. Timmermann Handbook of Economic Forecasting from Elsevier 2006 Title
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3. Modeling Forecasting Planning
Items' Events Exploiting the Errors: A Simple Approach for Improved Volatility Forecasting Tim Bollerslev, Andrew J. Patton and Rogier Quaedvlieg from School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus Abstract Text Oil Price Forecastability and Economic Uncertainty Stelios Bekiros, Rangan Gupta and Alessia Paccagnini from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics Abstract Text The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model with Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling Joshua Chan from Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University Abstract Text Forecasting the yield curve: art or science? Tomas K. Molenaars, Nick H. Reinerink and Marcus Hemminga from University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Probabilistic load forecasting via Quantile Regression Averaging on sister forecasts Bidong Liu, Jakub Nowotarski, Tao Hong and Rafal Weron from Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology Abstract Text Systematic Errors in Growth Expectations over the Business Cycle Jonas Dovern and Nils Jannsen from Kiel Institute for the World Economy Abstract Text Financial Crises and Forecasting Failures Roy Batchelor in Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Abstract Text On the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of interest rates and country risk premiums Hamid Baghestani, Mohammad Arzaghi and Ilker Kaya in Applied Economics Abstract Text Determination of the distribution of flood forecasting error Determination of the distribution of flood forecasting error in Natural Hazards Abstract Text Forecasters and rationality—A comment on Fritsche et al., Forecasting the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality and forecaster herding Robert Fildes in International Journal of Forecasting Abstract Text Reproducibility in forecasting research John E. Boylan, Paul Goodwin, Maryam Mohammadipour and Aris A. Syntetos in International Journal of Forecasting Abstract Text On the Difficulty of Measuring Forecasting Skill in Financial Markets Stephen E. Satchell and Oliver J. Williams in Journal of Forecasting Abstract Text Model Uncertainty and Forecast Combination in High?Dimensional Multivariate Volatility Prediction Alessandra Amendola and Giuseppe Storti in Journal of Forecasting Abstract Text A Multiplicative Error Model with Heterogeneous Components for Forecasting Realized Volatility Heejoon Han, Myung D. Park and Shen Zhang in Journal of Forecasting Abstract Text The distribution of inflation forecast errors Edward N. Gamber, Jeffrey P. Liebner and Julie K. Smith in Journal of Policy Modeling Abstract Text The nature and impact of the market forecasting errors in the Federal funds futures market Kwamie Dunbar and Abu S. Amin in The North American Journal of Economics and Finance Abstract Text Commodity price changes and the predictability of economic policy uncertainty Yudong Wang, Bing Zhang, Xundi Diao and Chongfeng Wu in Economics Letters Abstract Text Forecasting method for noisy demand Liljana Ferbar Tratar in International Journal of Production Economicsv Abstract Text Measuring Inflation Forecast Uncertainty Edward Knotek, Saeed Zaman and Todd Clark in Economic Commentary Abstract Text Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy Todd Clark and Michael W. McCracken in Journal of Econometrics Abstract Text Robust approaches to forecasting Jennifer L. Castle, Michael Clements and David Hendry in International Journal of Forecasting Abstract Text Near-Rational Expectations: How Far Are Surveys from Rationality? Sergey Ivashchenko from European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics Abstract Text 2014
Forecasting Long Memory Series Subject to Structural Change: A Two-Stage Approach Gustavo Fruet Dias and Fotis Papailias School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus Abstract Text Combined Density Nowcasting in an uncertain economic environment Knut Are Aastveit, Francesco Ravazzolo and Herman K. van Dijk Norges Bank Abstract Text Range-based Volatility Estimation and Forecasting Daniel Bencik Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies Abstract Text Modeling and Forecasting Volatility – How Reliable are modern day approaches? Anirudh Mehta and Kunal Kanishka University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Assessing Point Forecast Accuracy by Stochastic Error Distance Francis Diebold and Minchul Shin Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania Abstract Text Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature Raffaella Giacomini C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Text On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability Joseph P. Byrne, Dimitris Korobilis and Pinho J. Ribeiro University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans Anna Orlik and Laura Veldkamp C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Text Back to the Futures: An Assessment of Commodity Market Efficiency and Forecast Error Drivers Bernardina Algieri and Matthias Kalkuhl University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF) Abstract Text Forecasting Equity Premium: Global Historical Average versus Local Historical Average and Constraints Tae Hwy Lee, Yundong Tu and Aman Ullah University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics Abstract Text Density Forecast Evaluation in Unstable Environments Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera and Yingying Sun University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics Abstract Text Can Economic Uncertainty, Financial Stress and Consumer Senti-ments Predict U.S. Equity Premium? Rangan Gupta, Shawkat Hammoudeh, Mampho P. Modise and Duc Khuong Nguyen Department of Research, Ipag Business School Abstract Text ESTIMATION OF VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL WITH GARCH ERRORS: MONTE CARLO SIMULATION AND APPLICATIONS Kusdhianto Setiawan and Koichi Maekawa EcoMod Abstract Text The role in index jumps and cojumps in forecasting stock index volatility: Evidence from the Dow Jones index Adam Clements and Yin Liao National Centre for Econometric Research Abstract Text On Forecast Evaluation Wilmer Osvaldo Martinez-Rivera, Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano and Juan Manuel Julio-Roman BANCO DE LA REPUBLICA Abstract Text M1 and M2 indicators - new proposed measures for the global accuracy of forecast intervals Mihaela Simionescu Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS) Abstract Text Can Economic Uncertainty, Financial Stress and Consumer Senti-ments Predict U.S. Equity Premium? Rangan Gupta, Shawkat Hammoudeh, Mampho P. Modise and Duc Khuong Nguyen Department of Research, Ipag Business School Abstract Text Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, With Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts Barbara Rossi and Tatevik Sekhposyany Barcelona Graduate School of Economics Abstract Text Multi-step forecasting in the presence of breaks Jari Hannikainen University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Do We Need New Modelling Approaches in Macroeconomics? Claudia M. Buch and Oliver Holtemoller Halle Institute for Economic Research Abstract Text Does Debt Ceiling and Government Shutdown Help in Forecasting the US Equity Risk Premium? Goodness Aye, Frederick Deale and Rangan Gupta University of Pretoria, Department of Economics Abstract General correcting formulae for forecasts Alexander Harin University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Forecasting with the Standardized Self-Perturbed Kalman Filter Stefano Grassi, Nima Nonejad and Paolo Santucci de Magistris School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus Abstract Text Theoretical guidelines for a partially informed forecast examiner Alexander Tsyplakov University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Forecasting Bankruptcy with Incomplete Information Xin Xu University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Model Averaging in Predictive Regressions Chu-An Liu and Biing-Shen Kuo University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Adaptive forecasting in the presence of recent and ongoing structural change Liudas Giraitis, George Kapetanios and Simon Glover Price Bank of England Abstract Text Assessing Point Forecast Accuracy by Stochastic Divergence from Zero Francis Diebold and Minchul Shin Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania Abstract Text Forecasts and Reactivity Reto Cueni and Bruno S. Frey Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA) Abstract Text Analysis of forecast errors in micro-level survey data Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren Bank of Finland Abstract Text Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World Joseph P. Byrne, Dimitris Korobilis and Pinho J. Ribeiro University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green and Andreas Graefe University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Estimates of uncertainty around budget forecasts John Clark, Caroline Gibbons, Susan Morrissey, Joshua Pooley, Emily Pye, Rhett Wilcox and Luke Willard Treasury, Australian Government Abstract Text Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union Antonio Afonso and Rui Carvalho ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon Abstract Text Top
2013
Growth Forecast Errors and Government Investment and Consumption Multipliers Branimir Jovanovic Tor Vergata University, CEIS Abstract Text What Is the Best Risk Measure in Practice? A Comparison of Standard Measures Suzanne Emmer, Marie Kratz and Dirk Tasche HAL Abstract Text Finding a Connection Between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals, How Should We Model Revisions to Forecasting Strategies? Peter H. Sullivan Job Market Papers Abstract Text Forecasting and Tracking Real-Time Data Revisions in Inflation Persistence Heather L.R. Tierney University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Fundamental Equation of Economics James J. Wayne University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Time Stamp Errors and the Stock Price Reaction to Analyst Recommendation and Forecasts Revisions Daniel Hoechle, nic Schaub and Markus Schmid University of St. Gallen, School of Finance Abstract Text Detecting and Forecasting Large Deviations and Bubbles in a Near-Explosive Random Coefficient Model Anurag Narayan Banerjee, Guillaume Chevillon and Marie Kratz HAL Abstract Text Currency forecast errors at times of low interest rates: evidence from survey data on the Yen/Dollar exchange rate Ronald MacDonald and Jun Nagayasu University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics Abstract Text Using Common Features to Understand the Behavior of Metal-Commodity Prices and Forecast them at Different Horizons Joao Victor Issler, Claudia Rodrigues and Rafael Burjack FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Financas, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) Abstract Text Forecasting daily and monthly exchange rates with machine learning techniques Theophilos Papadimitriou, Periklis Gogas and Vasilios Plakandaras Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics Abstract Text Labour market forecasting: is disaggregation useful? Enzo Weber and Gerd Zika Institut fur Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nurnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] Abstract Text Can Economic Uncertainty, Financial Stress and Consumer Sentiments Predict U.S. Equity Premium? Rangan Gupta, Shawkat Hammoudeh, Mampho P. Modise and Duc Khuong Nguyen Department of Research, Ipag Business School Abstract Text Uncertainty and heterogeneity in factor models forecasting Matteo Luciani and Libero Monteforte Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area Abstract Text Financial Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: Do valuation methods matter? Elisa Cavezzali and Ugo Rigoni Department of Management, Universita Ca' Foscari Venezia Abstract Text A Survey of Recent Advances in Forecast Accuracy Comparison Testing, with an Extension to Stochastic Dominance Valentina Corradi and Norman Rasmus Swanson Rutgers University, Department of Economics Abstract Text Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Text Exchange Rate Predictability Barbara Rossi C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Text THE ASSESSMENT AND IMPROVEMENT OF THE ACCURACY FOR THE FORECAST INTERVALS Mihaela Bratu Institute for Economic Forecasting Abstract Text Asking the Oracle: Introducing Forecasting Principles into Agent-Based Modelling Samer Hassan, Javier Arroyo, JosA© Manuel GalA?n, Luis Antunes and Juan Pavon Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation Abstract Text Risk Modelling and Management: An Overview Chia-Lin Chang, David E. Allen, Michael McAleer and Teodosio Perez Amaral Tinbergen Institute Abstract Text Forecasting GDP Growth Using Mixed-Frequency Models With Switching Regimes Fady Barsoum and Sandra Stankiewicz Department of Economics, University of Konstanz Abstract Text The impact of forecasting errors on warehouse labor efficiency: A case study in consumer electronics T.Y. Kim, Rommert Dekker and C. Heij Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute Abstract Text Analyzing Fixed-Event Forecast Revisions Chia-Lin Chang, Bert de Bruijn, Philip Hans Franses and Michael McAleer Tinbergen Institute Abstract Text Are Forecast Updates Progressive? Chia-Lin Chang, Philip Hans Franses and Michael McAleer Tinbergen Institute Abstract Text Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts: Proper Scoring Rules and Moments Alexander Tsyplakov University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Measuring Inaccuracy in Travel Demand Forecasting: Methodological Considerations Regarding Ramp Up and Sampling Bent Flyvbjerg arXiv.org Abstract Text Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting David F. Hendry and Grayham E. Mizon Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford Abstract Text Martingale unobserved component models Neil Shephard University of Oxford, Department of Economics Abstract Text A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data Claudia Foroni and Massimiliano Marcellino Norges Bank Abstract Text Short-term GDP forecasting with a mixed frequency dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility Massimiliano Marcellino, Mario Porqueddu and Fabrizio Venditti C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Text Meaning and measurement of national accounts statistics Frits Bos University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers Olivier Blanchard and Daniel Leigh National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Abstract Text Can analyst predict stock market crashes? Terence T. L. Chong and Xiaolei Wang Economics Bulletin Abstract Text Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time-Varying Parameter Regression Models Miguel Angel Gonzalez Belmonte and Gary Koop University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics Abstract Text On the relation between forecast precision and trading profitability of financial analysts Carlo Marinelli and Alex Weissensteiner arXiv.org Abstract Text Top
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2012
Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts Jonas Eliasson, Dirk van Amelsfort, Maria Borjesson, Karin Brundell-Freij and Leonid Engelson CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI) Abstract Text Investigating Impacts of Self-Exciting Jumps in Returns and Volatility: A Bayesian Learning Approach Andras Fulop, Junye Li and Jun Yu Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University Abstract Text The failure to predict the Great Recession. The failure of academic economics? A view focusing on the role of credit Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas and Gabriel Perez-Quiros C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Text On the relationship between individual and group decisions Joel Sobel Theoretical Economics Abstract Text Bayesian Forecasting with Highly Correlated Predictors Dimitris Korobilis The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis Abstract Text Open-economy Inflation Targeting Policies and Forecast Accuracy Alessandro Flamini University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management Abstract Text Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace Reserve Bank of Australia Abstract Text A Comparative Analysis of Health Forecasting Methods Roberto Astolfi, Luca Lorenzoni and Jillian Oderkirk OECD Publishing Abstract Text Forecasting Volatility with the Realized Range in the Presence of Noise and Non-Trading K. Bannouh, M.P.E. Martens and D.J.C. van Dijk Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), Abstract Text Forecast robustness in macroeconometric models Gunnar Bardsen, Dag Kolsrud, and Ragnar Nymoen Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology Abstract Text Moving Average Stochastic Volatility Models with Application to Inflation Forecast Joshua C.C. Chan Australian National University Abstract Text Let's Do It Again: Bagging Equity Premium Predictors Eric Hillebrand, Tae-Hwy Lee and Marcelo C. Medeiros School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus Abstract Text Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests Francis Diebold Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics Abstract Text Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies? Rossana Merola and Javier J. Perez Garcia Banco de EspaA±a Abstract Text Evaluating the usefulness of forecasts of relative growth Grant Jordan Allan University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics Abstract Non-Parametric Stochastic Simulations to Investigate Uncertainty around the OECD Indicator Model Forecasts Elena Rusticelli OECD Publishing Abstract Text Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Abstract Text Nonlinearity, Breaks, and Long-Range Dependence in Time-Series Models Eric Hillebrand and Marcelo C. Medeiros School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus Abstract Text Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Concise Review of Some Recent Developments Philip Hans Franses, Michael McAleer and Rianne Legerstee University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance Abstract Text How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty? Ray C. Fair Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Abstract Text Is there an Optimal Forecast Combination? A Stochastic Dominance Approach to Forecast Combination Puzzle Mehmet Pinar, Thanasis Stengos and Ege Yazgan The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis Abstract Text Uncertainty and Heterogeneity in factor models forecasting Matteo Luciani and Libero Monteforte Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance Abstract Text Financial Markets Forecasts Revisited: Are they Rational, Herding or Bold? Ippei Fujiwara, Hibiki Ichiue, Yoshiyuki Nakazono and Yosuke Shigemi Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan Abstract Text Local Adaptive Multiplicative Error Models for High-Frequency Forecasts Wolfgang Karl Hardle, Nikolaus Hautsch and Andrija Mihoci Humboldt University, Collaborative Research Center 649 Abstract Text Evaluating the forecast quality of GDP components: An application to G7 Paulo Fernando Julio and Pedro M. Esperanca Gabinete de Estrategia e Estudos, Ministerio da Economia e da Inovacao Abstract Text Bayesian logistic betting strategy against probability forecasting Masayuki Kumon, Jing Li, Akimichi Takemura and Kei Takeuchi arXiv.org Abstract Text The short term prediction of analysts' forecast error Kris Boudt, Peter De Goeij, James Thewissen and Geert Van Campenhout Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management Abstract Text Adaptive Forecasting in the Presence of Recent and Ongoing Structural Change Liudas Giraitis, George Kapetanios and Simon Glover Price Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance Abstract Text Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Text Systemic Real and Financial Risks: Measurement, Forecasting, and Stress Testing Gianni De NicolA?, and Marcella Lucchetta International Monetary Fund Abstract Text A New Structural Break Model with Application to Canadian Inflation Forecasting John Maheu and Yong Song University of Toronto, Department of Economics Abstract Text Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using Block Structure Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models Manabu Asai, Massimiliano Caporin and Michael McAleer University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance Abstract Text Adaptive Forecasting in the Presence of Recent and Ongoing Structural Change Liudas Giraitis, George Kapetanios and Simon Price Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance Abstract Text Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Text Empirical analysis of the forecast error impact of classical and bayesian beta adjustment techniques Pankaj Sinha and Prabha Jayaraman University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey Simon Sosvilla-Rivero and Maria del Carmen Ramos-Herrera Asociacion Espanola de Economia y Finanzas Internacionales Abstract Text The prediction of inflation in Romania in uncertainty conditions BRATU Mihaela EuroEconomica Abstract Text Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach Henning Fischer, Marta Garcia-Barzana, Peter Tillmann and Peter Winker Philipps-Universitat Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) Abstract Text Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation Michael Peter Clements University of Warwick, Department of Economics Abstract Text Modelling and forecasting noisy realized volatility Manabu Asai, Michael McAleer and Marcelo C. Medeiros Computational Statistics & Data Analysis Abstract Text Top
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2011
Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Structural Breaks M Hashem Pesaran, Andreas Pick and Mikhail Pranovich Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department Abstract Text Flexible Inflation Forecast Targeting: Evidence from Canada Graham M Voss and Glenn D. Otto Department of Economics, University of Victoria Abstract Estimating and forecasting structural breaks in financial time series Luc Bauwens, Arnaud DUFAYS and Bruno DE BACKER Universite catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) Abstract Text Assessing the information content of option-based volatility forecasts using fuzzy regression methods Silvia Muzzioli and Bernard De Baets University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi" Abstract Do Experts incorporate Statistical Model Forecasts and should they? Rianne Legerstee, Philip Hans Franses and Richard Paap Tinbergen Institute Abstract Text Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods Raffaella Giacomini and Giuseppe Ragusa C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Text Disagreement, Uncertainty and the True Predictive Density Fabian Kruger and Ingmar Nolte Department of Economics, University of Konstanz Abstract Text Volatility Forecasting: Downside Risk, Jumps and Leverage Effect Francesco Audrino and Yujia Hu University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science Abstract Text Testing interval forecasts: a GMM-based approach Elena Ivona Dumitrescu, Christophe Hurlin and Jaouad Madkour HAL Abstract Text Forecasting volatility: does continuous time do better than discrete time? Carles Breto and Helena Veiga Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadistica y Econometria Abstract Text Forecasting with Approximate Dynamic Factor Models: the Role of Non-Pervasive Shocks Matteo Luciani ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles Abstract Text Forecasting Under Strucural Break Uncertainty Jing Tian and Heather M. Anderson Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics Abstract Text Forecasting in the presence of recent structural change Jana Eklund, George Kapetanios and Simon Glover Price Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Abstract Text The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Series Luc Bauwens, Gary Koop, Dimitris Korobilis and Jeroen VK Rombouts Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis Abstract Text What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations? Marcelle Chauvet, Zeynep Senyuz and Emre Yoldas University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions Michael McAleer, Philip Hans Franses and Chia-Lin Chang Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research Abstract Text Evaluating Individual and Mean Non-Replicable Forecasts Chia-Lin Chang, Philip Hans Franses and Michael McAleer Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research Abstract Text Are realized volatility models good candidates for alternative Value at Risk prediction strategies? Dimitrios P. Louzis, Spyros Xanthopoulos-Sisinis and Apostolos P. Refenes University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data Kjetil Martinsen, Francesco Ravazzolo and Fredrik Wulfsberg Norges Bank Abstract Text GDP Modelling with Factor Model: an Impact of Nested Data on Forecasting Accuracy Andrejs Bessonovs University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Forecasting Equicorrelation Adam Clements, Christopher A Coleman-Fenn and Daniel R. Smith National Centre for Econometric Research Abstract Text Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging Gary Koop and Dimitris Korobilis University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics Abstract Text Forecasting correlations during the late-2000s financial crisis: short-run component, long-run component, and structural breaks Francesco Audrino University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science Abstract Text Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs Gary Koop University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics Abstract Text A comparison of Forecasting Procedures for Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution of Structural Break Models Luc Bauwens, Gary Koop, Dimitris Korobilis and Jeroen Rombouts University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics Abstract Text Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Review of Some Recent Developments Philip Hans Franses, Michael McAleer and Rianne Legerstee Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research Abstract Text Forecasting Performance of Alternative Error Correction Models Javed Iqbal University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text A Century of Inflation Forecasts Antonello D'Agostino and Paolo Surico C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Text Are Forecast Updates Progressive? Chia-Lin Chang, Philip Hans Franses and Michael McAleer Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research Abstract Text The value of feedback in forecasting competitions George Athanasopoulos and Rob J Hyndman Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics Abstract Text An Alternative Bayesian Approach to Structural Breaks in Time Series Models Sjoerd van den Hauwe, Richard Paap and Dick van Dijk Tinbergen Institute Keywords: Structural breaks Abstract Text Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Text Modelling and Forecasting Noisy Realized Volatility Manabu Asai, Michael McAleer and M. Medeiros Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute Abstract Text The forecasting horizon of inflationary expectations and perceptions in the EU. Is it really 12 months? Lars Jonung and Staffan Linden Lund University, Department of Economics Abstract Text Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds Andrew Patton and Allan Timmermann C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Text The sensitivity of the Scaled Model of Error with respect to the choice of the correlation parameters: A simulation study Rebecca Graziani and Nico Keilman "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Universita Commerciale Luigi Bocconi Abstract Text Top
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2010
Probabilistic Forecasts of Volatility and its Risk Premia Worapree Maneesoonthorn, Gael Margaret Martin, Catherine S. Forbes and Simone Grose Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics Abstract Text Forecasting in the presence of recent structural change Jana Eklund, George Kapetanios and Simon Price Bank of England Abstract Text Nowcasting Marta Banbura, Domenico Giannone and Lucrezia Reichlin European Central Bank Abstract Text The links between in?ation and in?ation uncertainty at the longer horizon Alexander Tsyplakov University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text A Perspective on Predicting Currency Crises Juan Yepez, Robert P. Flood and Nancy P. Marion International Monetary Fund Abstract Text Denoised Least Squares Forecasting of GDP Changes Using Indexes of Consumer and Business Sentiment Antonis A. Michis Central Bank of Cyprus Abstract Text Forecast Combination and Bayesian Model Averaging - A Prior Sensitivity Analysis Martin Feldkircher University of Salzburg Abstract Text Information or Institution? – On the Determinants of Forecast Accuracy Roland Dohrn and Christoph M. Schmidt Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universitat Bochum, Universitat Dortmund, Universitat Duisburg-Essen Abstract Text The Role of Dynamic Specification in Forecasting Volatility in the Presence of Jumps and Noisy High-Frequency Data Rasmus Varneskov School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus Abstract Text How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan Chia-Lin Chang, Philip Hans Franses and Michael McAleer Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research Abstract Text Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability Ray Fair Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Abstract Text Теорема о существовании разрывов в шкале вероятностей. Дискретный случай Alexander Harin University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Forecasting volatility in the presence of Leverage Effect Remi Rhodes, Vincent Vargas and Jean-Christophe Domenge HAL Abstract Text Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics Duo Qin Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance Abstract Text Theorem of existence of ruptures in probability scale. Preliminary short version Alexander Harin University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Теорема о существовании разрывов в шкале вероятностей. II Alexander Harin University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text On the forecasting accuracy of multivariate GARCH models Sebastien Laurent, Jeroen VK Rombouts and Francesco Violante Universite catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) Abstract Text Do Jumps Matter? Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility allowing for Common Jumps Yin Liao, Heather M. Anderson and Farshid Vahid Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics Abstract Text Bias Correction and Out-of-Sample Forecast Accuracy Hyeongwoo Kim and Nazif Durmaz Department of Economics, Auburn University Abstract Text Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others? D’Agostino, Antonello, Kieran McQuinn and Karl T. Whelan School Of Economics, University College Dublin Abstract Text Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty Anthony Garratt, James Mitchell and Shaun P. Vahey C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Text Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts Ullrich Heilemann and Herman O. Stekler The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting Abstract Text Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting Torsten Schmidt, Helmut Hofer and Klaus Weyerstrass Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universitat Bochum, Universitat Dortmund, Universitat Duisburg-Essen Abstract Text Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? Tara M. Sinclair, Fred Joutz and Herman O. Stekler The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting Abstract Text Seasonality, Forecast Extensions and Business Cycle Uncertainty Tommaso Proietti University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Теорема о существовании разрывов в шкале вероятностей Alexander Harin University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy De NicolA?, Gianni and Marcella Lucchetta International Monetary Fund Abstract Text Real-Time Data Revisions and the PCE Measure of Inflation Heather L.R. Tierney University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Forecasting with Factor-augmented Error Correction Models Anindya Banerjee, Massimiliano Marcellino and Igor Masten C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Text Has the Accuracy of German Macroeconomic Forecasts Improved? Ullrich Heilemann and Herman O. Stekler The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting Abstract Text Hedging: Scaling and the Investor Horizon John Cotter and Jim Hanly Geary Institute, University College Dublin Abstract Text Predicting chaos with Lyapunov exponents: Zero plays no role in forecasting chaotic systems Dominique Guegan and Justin T. Leroux HAL Abstract Text Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How? Elena Andreou, Eric Ghysels and Andros Kourtellos Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis Abstract Text How Risky Is the Value at Risk? Roxana Halbleib (Chiriac) and Winfried Pohlmeier Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis Abstract Text Understanding Analysts' Earnings Expectations: Biases, Nonlinearities and Predictability Marco Aiolfi, Marius Rodriguez and Allan Timmermann C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Text Top
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2009
Ruptures in the probability scale? Calculation of ruptures’ dimensions Alexander Harin University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Forecasting Realized Volatility with Linear and Nonlinear Models Michael McAleer and M.C. Medeiros Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institut... Abstract Text Forecasting long memory time series under a break in persistence Florian Heinen, Philipp Sibbertsen and Robinson Kruse School of Economics and Management, University of ... Abstract Text Accuracy, Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts: An empirical Comparison for the G7 Jonas Dovern and Johannes Weisser Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Ins... Abstract Text Nonlinearity, Nonstationarity, and Spurious Forecasts Vadim Marmer Microeconomics.ca Website Abstract Text Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis Ondra Kamenik, Marianne Johnson, Kevin Clinton, Huigang Chen and Douglas Laxton International Monetary Fund Abstract Text Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world Jan J. J. Groen and R. Paap Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institut... Abstract Text Forecasting chaotic systems: The role of local Lyapunov exponents Dominique Guegan and Justin Leroux HAL Abstract Text Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability Ray C. Fair Cowles Foundation, Yale University Abstract Text Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche and Jiri (Jirka) Slacalek Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Poli... Abstract Text Macro modelling with many models Ida Wolden Bache, James Mitchell, Francesco Ravazzolo and Shaun P. Vahey Norges Bank Abstract Text UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So? Gary Koop and Dimitris Korobilis University of Strathclyde Business School, Departm... Abstract Text Realising the future: forecasting with high frequency based volatility (HEAVY) models Neil Shephard and Kevin Sheppard Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of O... Abstract Text General correcting formula of forecasting? Alexander Harin University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Общая корректирующая формула прогнозирования Alexander Harin University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Forecasting the World Economy in the Short-Term Audrone Jakaitiene and Stephane Dees European Central Bank Abstract Text Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability Ray C. Fair Cowles Foundation, Yale University Abstract Text A nonparametric approach to forecasting realized volatility Adam Clements and Ralf Becker National Centre for Econometric Research Abstract Text Estimating and Forecasting Asset Volatility and Its Volatility: A Markov-Switching Range Model Jan Piplack Utrecht School of Economics Abstract Text MONETARY POLICY FORECASTING IN A DSGE MODEL WITH DATA THAT IS UNCERTAIN, UNBALANCED AND ABOUT THE FUTURE Andres Gonzalez Gomez, Lavan Mahadeva, Diego Rodriguez and Luis Eduardo Rojas Duenas BANCO DE LA REPUBLICA Abstract Text Chaos in Economics and Finance Dominique Guegan HAL Abstract Text Forecasting Random Walks under Drift Instability M. Hashem Pesaran and Andreas Pick Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department Abstract Text Optimal Prediction Pools John Geweke and Gianni Amisano European Central Bank Abstract Text Volatility Forecasting: The Jumps Do Matter Fulvio Corsi, Davide Pirino and Roberto Reno Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi Unive... Abstract Text Forecasting Errors: Yet More Problems for Identification? Bruno Contini Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Abstract Text Top
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2008
A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy Ondra Kamenik, Ioan Carabenciov, Igor Ermolaev, Charles Freedman, Dmitry Korshunov, Douglas Laxton and Michel Juillard International Monetary Fund Abstract Text The History of Manpower Forecasting in Modelling Labour Market Stefano Spalletti Macerata University, Department of Studies on Econ... Abstract Text Forecasting Unemployment Rate Using a Neural Network with Fuzzy Inference System George Atsalakis, Camelia Ioana Ucenic and Christos Skiadas University of Crete, Department of Economics Abstract Text The Resolution of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Survey Forecast Andrew J. Patton and Allan Timmermannd CREATES Research Papers Abstract Text The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis Isabell Koske and Nigel Pain OECD Economics Department Abstract Text Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets – A pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise K. Barhoumi, S. Benk, R. Cristadoro, Ard Den Reijer, A. Jakaitiene, P. Jelonek, A. Rua, K. Ruth, C. Van Nieuwenhuyze and Gerhard Runstler National Bank of Belgium Abstract Text The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting Kenneth S Rogoff and Vania Stavrakeva National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Abstract Text Forecasting Bankruptcy and Physical Default Intensity Ping Zhou Financial Markets Group Abstract Text Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance Cars Hommes and Florian Oskar Ottokar Wagener Tinbergen Institute Abstract Text Forecasting Realized Volatility: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach Chun Liu and John M. Maheu University of Toronto, Department of Economics Abstract Text A Review of Forecasting Techniques for Large Data Sets Jana Eklund and George Kapetanios Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Ec... Abstract Text Forecasting chaotic systems: the role of local Lyapunov exponents Dominique Guegan and Justin Leroux HAL Abstract Text Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs M Hashem Pesaran, Til Schuermann and L. Vanessa Smit Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge Abstract Text Top
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2007
A hybrid approach to combine fuzziness and randomness in travel choice prediction Dell'Orco, Mauro, Giovanni Circella and Domenico Sassanelli European Journal of Operational Research Title Prospective analysis: guidelines for forecasting financial statements Ignacio Velez-Pareja and Joseph Tham UNIVERSIDAD TECNOLOGICA DE BOLIVAR Abstract Text Endogenous Political Instability Ryo Arawatari and Kazuo Mino Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and... Abstract Text Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan Ivan Kitov University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Bayesian Analysis of Determinisitic Time Trend and Changes in Persistence Using a Generalised Stochastic Unit Root Model Fuyu Yang Department of Economics, University of Leicester Abstract Text The Dictator’s Dilemma: to Punish or to Assist? Plan Failures and Interventions under Stalin Andrei Markevich Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) Abstract Text Принцип неопределенного будущего и его применения А. Харин СОЦИОНЕТ About: Modeling, Forecasting, Planning and the Principle of Uncertain Future. Аннотация Текст Do People Plan? John Bone, John D Hey and John Suckling Department of Economics, University of York Abstract Text Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting Lars E O Svensson and Noah Williams C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? Karine Michalon, Sandrine Lardic and Francois Dossou HAL, CCSD Abstract Text Do People Plan? John Bone, John Hey and John Suckling MIUR Project on Dynamic Decision Making Abstract An Analysis of Tax Revenue Forecast Errors Martin Keene and Peter Thomson New Zealand Treasury Abstract Heavy tails and electricity prices: Do time series models with non-Gaussian noise forecast better? Rafal Weron and Adam Misiorek University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text Principle of uncertain future and utility Alexander Harin University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract Text How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys Gultekin Isiklar and Kajal Lahiri International Journal of Forecasting 2007 Abstract How far ahead do people plan? John D. Hey and Julia A. Knoll Economics Letters 2007 Abstract Top
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4. Problems of Modeling
(more)
The well-determined (but paradoxical) facts are: For positive (gains) risky prospects, people typically 1) overweight low probabilities but 2) underweight high probabilities. For negative (losses) risky prospects, people typically 3) underweight low probabilities but 4) overweight high probabilities. Top
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5. New Principle of Modeling, Forecasting, Planning
(more)
Principle of Uncertain Future
(simplified as much as possible)
The principle
The probability of a future event contains uncertainty.
5.1. The first consequence of the principle
Suppose we plan to test the probability value, which is equal to 99%. Suppose the probability uncertainty value is equal to 5%. Then, evidently, the real mean value of probability cannot be as high as 99%. Generally, High probabilities will decrease.
Phigh real < Phigh planned
Analogously, but considering the second consequence of the principle (see below),
Low probabilities can increase.
Plow real possible > Plow planned
5.2. The second consequence of the principle
The total probability of unforeseen future events is more than 0%
Σ Punforeseen real > 0%
Hence,
The present total probability of future events is less than 100%
Σ Pplanned < 100%
or
The present probability system of future events is incomplete. Top
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6. New Results. Solution of Problems
(more)
6.1. Solution of Problems of Modeling
The well-determined (but paradoxical) facts are: For positive (gains) risky prospects, people typically 1) overweight low probabilities but 2) underweight high probabilities. For negative (losses) risky prospects, people typically 3) underweight low probabilities but 4) overweight high probabilities. Denoting the real value of probability, which value is near 100% as Phigh real , the (positive) value of gain as G and the (negative) value of loss as -G , we obtain
Phigh real < Phigh planned
and
G * Phigh real < G * Phigh planned
-G * Phigh real > -G * Phigh planned
2) the underweight of high probabilities gains and 4) the overweight of high probabilities losses. Denoting the real value of probability, which value is near 0% as Plow real possible we obtain
Plow real possible > Plow planned
and
G * Plow real possible > G * Plow planned
-G * Plow real possible < -G * Plow planned
1) the overweight of low probabilities gains and 3) the underweight of low probabilities losses. Thus, the above facts can be explained naturally and uniformly. Top
6.2. New Results
6.2.1. Formula of Forecasting
The principle of uncertain future causes an increase of forecasting error and structural complexity. The principle of uncertain future originates a formula of forecasting:
F ≅ Fbase {1+Σφaddit}
{∏(1+kmultiplicat)} {1±Δerror}
Top
6.2.2. "Impossibilities" in Forecasting
Possible conclusions from the formula of forecasting and the first consequence of the principle: "Absolutely exact extrapolation forecasting is impossible" "Exact middle-range extrapolation forecasting is unattainable" Possible conclusions from the formula of forecasting and from the first and second consequences of the principle: "Absolutely reliable extrapolation forecasting is impossible" "Exact long-range extrapolation forecasting is impossible" "Quantitative extra-long-range extrapolation forecasting is impossible" (Growing quantitative uncertainties and unforeseen events may modify an essential parameter for more than 50% from its maximal value) Possible conclusion from the formula of forecasting and the second consequence of the principle: "Complete qualitative extra-long-range extrapolation forecasting is impossible" (Unforeseen events may add an unforeseen qualitative feature in a complete picture) Top
6.2.3. "Necessities" in Planning
Possible conclusions from the formula of forecasting and the principle of uncertain future in the scope of the concept "Future as the extrapolated Present": "Future is Modifications and Changes" "Short-term and Medium-term Planning is Necessary to be Flexible" "The Necessary Features of Long-term Planning should be Robustness & Resourcefulness" Top
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